Described as an antioxidant, an extraordinary natural antidepressant and a blood pressure reducer. But aren’t all these benefits just a way of concealing our greed, leading some of us to consume in moderation, while others eat it uncontrollably.
First processed into powder and consumed as a beverage in South America by the Olmecs, Mayas and Aztecs, chocolate made from harvested cocoa beans enjoyed a boom in Europe in the 16th century.
The Spanish were the first Europeans to process and consume it in the form of chocolate buttons. Then the Netherlands discovered it through the arrival of cargoes in their harbors.
Later, France and Italy, through migratory movements from Spain, also succumbed to chocolate fever. Initially considered as a luxury product, it became more democratic, accessible and inexpensive.
This rise in consumption has been accompanied by the industrialization of chocolate production in Europe in the early 19th century. Between 1815 and 1830, there was an expansion of manufacturers such as Cailler, Suchard and Kohler in Switzerland, Van Houtten in the Netherlands and Cadbury in England.
It was in Switzerland that the first milk chocolate appeared in 1879, and in 1930, still in Switzerland, that the first white chocolate saw the light of day.
The countries of the South produce and the countries of the North consume. Ivory Cost and Ghana remain the most important cocoa-producing countries, together accounting for 50% of world production. Switzerland mainly imports cocoa beans from Ghana (44%) and Ecuador (18%).
Cocoa beans are processed into a number of products, including cocoa paste, chocolate, cocoa butter and cocoa mass…
Europe remains the leading continent for cocoa processing, with 36% of this activity (Netherlands 21%, Germany 9%, France 4%, Switzerland 1%…). Africa processes 22%, America 19% and Asia-Oceania 23%.
The cocoa market is highly volatile. It depends on weather conditions, production levels in cocoa producing countries and the political stability of these countries.
Climatic variations such as hot weather or severe drought are not conducive to stable production over the long term. Abundant rainfall also favors the spread of disease among trees, particularly cocoa trees. In 2024, cocoa-producing countries had to cope with abundant rainfall, which affected bean production.
In the two main producing countries, Ghana and Ivory Coast, the majority of agricultural producers are farmers with few financial resources and outdated production equipment. Their low income makes it difficult for them to invest in their farms to improve yields.
These countries therefore have very old cocoa trees, which are more sensitive to climatic disturbances and, above all, to diseases such as Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus Disease (CSSVD) or the proliferation of Black pod. This situation has led to a drop in production and a de facto supply problems.
In April 2024, we observed a sharp rise in cocoa prices and an increase of volatility. In addition to structural and climatic effects, speculative movements are also having an impact.
We are now facing a highly speculative cocoa market that has a direct impact on our daily lives.
The Cocoa performance has been tremendous and has nothing to envy the other 2024 performers.
2024 ytd performance as of 26/11/2024:
COCOA: +116%
BITCOIN: +122%
NVIDIA: +177%
GOLD: +26%
While cocoa bean production reached 5 million tons in 2023, production is expected to be lower in 2024, at 4.4 million tons.
Prices are in an uptrend, and the major European and American groups are trying to maintain their income from sales.
In this case, there are only two possibilities to remain competitive: Raise the price or reduce quantity.
For several months, prices were stable for consumers thanks due to the hedging strategies implemented by the producing companies, enabling them to agree a price in advance on the futures markets so as to be less affected by upward movements in cocoa prices.
But the party’s over! Consumers now realize that their sweet tooth comes at a price, and prices are on the rise.
This inflation has led to a drop in chocolate consumption, and in response to this situation, producers have had to change their recipes by using less chocolate in their products, or by shrinkflation (reducing the quantity offered, while often keeping the same packaging dimensions).
Switzerland (9 million inhabitants), the United States (335 million inhabitants) and other European countries remain the leading per capita consumers of chocolate.
2024 ytd performance comparison of 3 majors quoted companies as of 25/11/2024:
MONDELEZ -12%
HERSHEY -8.59%
LINDT +0.10%
